20160913 Peaking Factor PPTSeptember 13, 2016WATERSYSTEMPEAKINGFACTORANALYSISRoadway, Water, and WastewaterImpact Fee Study Update
Agenda•Refresher & Background•Historical and Projected Water Demands•Water Conservation Measures to Reduce Water Demands •Impact on Water System Capital Improvements Plan2
Refresher –Demand TerminologyMaximum DayAnnual TotalAnnual Average (“Avg Day”)3
Refresher –Demand TerminologyMaximum Day to Average Day Peaking Factor (PF)Water system operators need to be able to supply under Maximum Day Conditions4
Refresher –Why Are Tanks Needed?Peak Hour5
Refresher –Why Are Tanks Needed?6
Background•What is a peaking factor?–Ratio of maximum day to average day water usage •Contracted with NTMWD in November 2002 for water supply–Maximum delivery based on a peaking factor of 2.5•Amended contract in July 2014 –Maximum delivery based on a peaking factor of 2.27
Background – Peaking FactorPF can impact ultimate tank sizing, pipe sizing, and pumping capacity plus timing of a CIP8
Agenda•Refresher & Background•Historical and Projected Water Demands•Water Conservation Measures to Reduce Water Demands •Impact on Water System Capital Improvements Plan9
Historical Water DemandsYear Population(1)Average Day Demand (mgd)Average Day Per‐capita (gpcd)Maximum Day Demand (mgd)MD:AD Peaking Factor2008 6,350 1.6 252 5.83.62009 7,100 1.6 225 5.33.32010 9,423 1.9 203 6.43.42011 10,700 2.3 218 4.92.12012 12,190 2.4 194 4.72.02013 13,380 2.3 172 4.41.92014 14,710 2.5 167 5.22.12015 15,970 2.9 183 8.42.9Average‐‐202‐2.7•2011‐2014 were drought years with irrigation restrictions10
Projected Water Demands•Developed Two Scenarios•Scenario 1 ‐Historical–Based on review historical peaking factors with no restrictions•Maximum day to average day peaking factor of 2.9•Scenario 2 – Reduced–Reduce peaking factor with water conservation measures•Peaking factor of 2.2 for buildout–Buildout maximum day demand is 10.6 MGD lower11
Agenda•Refresher & Background•Historical and Projected Water Demands•Water Conservation Measures to Reduce Water Demands •Impact on Water System Capital Improvements Plan12
Approaches –How Might the Town Reduce Peaking Factor•Use of smart meter data•Conservation oriented utility rates•Enforce water restrictions–Potential consequences•Landscape ordinance for new development–Prohibit planting of specific grasses and plants (more drought tolerant)–Residential and non‐residential (golf courses, parks, athletic fields)–Landscape inspections –Limiting irrigated area 13
Agenda•Refresher & Background•Historical and Projected Water Demands•Water Conservation Measures to Reduce Water Demands •Impact on Water System Capital Improvements Plan14
Draft Water System Capital Improvements Plan15
Draft Water System Capital Improvements Plan (2016‐2026)16Project Number Project Name Original CIP Cost Reduced PF Cost2016 ‐20211West First Street PRV & 12‐inch Parallel Pipe $ 494,200 $ 494,200 2LPP 10.0 MGD Pump Station, 6.0 MG GST, & 42‐inch Transmission Line $ 24,628,900 $ 24,628,900 3West First Street 20‐inch Water Line, Dallas Parkway 24‐inch Parallel $ 3,334,500 $ 3,334,500 4LPP 2.5 MG EST & 24‐inch Water Line (Original CIP)LPP 2.0 MG EST & 20‐inch Water Line (Reduced PF CIP) $ 5,832,500 $ 5,091,100 5Fishtrap Road 24‐inch Water Line $ 532,300 $ 532,300 6Dallas Parkway 20‐inch & West Prosper Trail 12‐inch Water Lines $ 1,619,300 $ 1,619,300 Short‐Term Total $ 36,441,700 $ 35,700,300 2022 ‐2026 2022 ‐20267LPP PS Expansion to 25 MGD & 36‐inch Line (Original CIP)LPP PS Expansion to 20 MGD & 30‐inch Line (Reduced PF) $ 6,096,400 $ 4,778,000 824‐inch Transmission Main (Original CIP)20‐inch Transmission Main (Reduced PF CIP) $ 3,758,400 $ 3,233,700 9Legacy Drive 24‐inch Water Line (Original CIP)Legacy Drive 20‐inch Water Line (Reduced PF CIP) $ 2,136,600 $ 1,790,300 10 West Prosper Trail 20‐inch Water Line $ 1,682,700 $ 1,682,700 11 Dallas Parkway / Frontier Parkway 12‐inch Water Line $ 2,556,900 $ 2,556,900 12 First Street 12‐inch Water Line $ 1,605,300 $ 1,605,300 13 Preston Road 20‐inch Water Line $ 2,328,400 $ 2,328,400 Mid‐Term Total $ 20,164,700 $ 17,975,300
Draft Water System Capital Improvements Plan (2027‐BO)17Project Number Project Name Original CIP Cost Reduced PF CostBuildout Buildout14 Railroad 16‐inch Water Line (UPP) $ 1,238,800 $ 1,238,800 156 MG LPP LPP GST#2 (Original CIP)4 MG LPP LPP GST#2 (Reduced PF CIP) $ 6,451,200 $ 4,300,800 16 Goodhope Road 20‐inch Water Line $ 2,077,900 $ 2,077,900 17Prosper Road 24‐inch Waterline (Original CIP)Prosper Road 20‐inch Waterline (Reduced PF CIP) $ 2,432,200 $ 2,026,800 18 East University Drive / FM 1385 12‐inch Water Line $ 649,800 $ 649,800 19 Expand UPP Pump Station to 25.0 MGD $ 739,200 ‐20LPP 2.5 MG EST & 24‐inch Water Line (Original CIP)LPP 2.0 MG EST & 20‐inch Water Line (Reduced PF CIP) $ 6,764,100 $ 5,585,700 21 Railroad 12‐inch Water Line (LPP) $ 922,600 $ 922,600 22 FM 1385 12‐inch Water Line $ 1,133,900 $ 1,133,900 23 Frontier Parkway / Legacy 12" Water Line $ 1,507,300 $ 1,507,300 24 Parvin Road 12‐inch Water Line $ 1,414,800 $ 1,414,800 25 Parvin Road 12‐inch Water Line $ 1,992,900 $ 1,992,900 26LPP PS Expansion to 40 MGD (Original CIP)LPP PS Expansion to 30 MGD (Reduced PF) $ 1,814,400 $ 1,209,600 27 North Preston Road 16‐inch Water Line $ 1,854,800 $ 1,854,800 28 16‐inch Water Line $ 772,400 $ 772,400 29 Railroad 12‐inch Water Line (LPP) $ 953,300 $ 953,300 30 Preston Road 12‐inch Water Line $ 1,129,000 $ 1,129,000 Long‐Term Total $ 33,848,600 $ 28,770,400 CIP Total $ 90,455,000 $ 82,446,000
Staff Recommendation•Finalize 2016 Water & Wastewater CIP with 2.9 Peaking Factor–Provides flexibility to address higher demands–Provides peaking capability within Prosper distribution system while limiting peak on NTMWD system–Less than 10% increase on the overall system costs•Evaluate system performance and peaking factor with at least 5‐year CIP updates
Water System Peaking Factor Analysis
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Refresher –NTMWD Contract TerminologyAnnual Maximum is Specified in Contract (1.55 B Gallons)Annual Minimum is Potentially Adjusted Upward Annually up to Annual Maximum (Ratchets Up, Not Down) – 923 M GallonsDaily Average is 1/365thof the Annual MinimumMaximum Delivery Rate is 2.2 * Daily Average4
Projected Water Demands•Based on review historical peaking factors–Maximum day to average day peaking factor of 2.8‐2.9YearAverage Day Demand(MGD)Maximum Day Demand (MGD)Peak Hour Demand (MGD)2016 3.61 10.34 20.182021 5.76 16.39 31.912026 8.48 24.13 46.95Buildout 17.35 48.79 94.3212
Projected Water Demands•Based on contracted peaking factor of 2.2•Reduce peaking factor over time–Peaking factor of 2.64 in 2021–Peaking factor of 2.42 in 2026•Buildout maximum day demand is 10.6 MGD lowerYearAverage Day Demand(MGD)Maximum Day Demand (MGD)Peak Hour Demand (MGD)2016 3.61 10.34 20.182021 5.76 15.17 29.472026 8.48 20.54 39.78Buildout 17.35 38.23 73.1913
Smart Metering for Conservation•Real time vs. monthly usage data•Interaction with customers–Dashboards–High bill complaints•Data management•High initial capital cost•Performance based contracting can be used20
Smart Irrigation Controllers for Conservation•Irrigation controllers that…–Interpret weather data including weather forecast–Calculate landscape water loss–Accessible by mobile devices–Can provide customer alerts21
Weather Stations•NTMWD Service Area•Weather stations–Every member city–Four in the City of Frisco •Provide local watering advice•http://www.watermyyard.org/ •Frisco ET weather station recommendations22
Water Rate Alternatives23Approach Basis EfficiencyEquitable/AffordableRevenue StabilityAdministrationConsumer UnderstandingFlat Rate Constant●● ●Uniform RateCost per unit○●●Seasonal RateSeason○●●Inclining Block RateConsumption●● ●○WaterBudget Tiered RateReasonable use●●●
•Educate public early on•Dedicate funds and staff•Design appropriate to community•Review and change program •City should exhibit leadershipImplementation Advice28